Thursday, August 11, 2011

欧元体系瓦解疑虑重重 - 新财经杂志2011年8月刊专栏文章 作者:陈弘 哈维尔·比萨


http://www.xincaijing.com/html/zhuanlan/chenhong/7619.html    
    回顾金融危机蔓延全球的初始阶段,各国政府和央行都纷纷注入巨资来拯救本国的金融机构,华尔街也处于崩溃的边缘,最受瞩目的应该是2008年底的雷曼兄弟破产案。
    当时,亿万富翁索罗斯提出对欧元体系的怀疑,但似乎毫无依据。今年7月12日,当意大利和西班牙两个欧盟主体经济国家的风险溢价达到创纪录水平时,才淋漓尽致地暴露了欧洲一体化政治和经济体系的弱点。
    今年7月,国际评级机构对欧元区周边国家的评级下调,加上欧元区7月11日财长会议未能解决对希腊展开第二轮救助问题,意大利和西班牙(分别占欧元区生产总值的17%和11%)的国家风险又同时飙升102和80个基点,创下历史新高。两国的债券收益率高达6%,股市一度陷入高度恐慌,欧元区绩优股( Euro Stoxx 50)股价波动上升至今年最大值。
    众所周知,这两个欧盟核心经济体一旦沦陷,其巨大的经济规模会导致救助基金短缺,欧盟必须寻求扩大救助基金规模或债务展期的办法,欧元体系将面临更严峻的考验。可笑的是,索罗斯的预言竟然可能成为现实。
    对意大利的信誉评级下调有是原因的,意大利过去10年的经济增长率为2.5%,负债率占生产总值的120%,仅次于希腊,其中53%是外债。意大利的出口贸易不断降低,政治形势长期处于混乱状态,尤其是总理贝卢斯科尼和经济部长特雷蒙蒂之间的意见分歧,都是意大利国债收益率上升的根源所在。庆幸的是,意大利的紧缩政策在7月15日勉强获得通过,给了欧盟喘息的机会。作为第三大欧元区经济体,意大利是否能渡过这次危机,对欧元区至关重要。
    要稳定并控制欧盟目前的紧张局势,必须做到以下三点:其一,批准对希腊的债务重组和新的救助方案,并保证其无违约风险;其二,欧洲央行继续购买受影响国家的债券;其三,史无前例地允许欧洲金融稳定基金在二级市场购买政府债券。欧盟领导人的决策多数在本国竞选和欧盟一体化选择之间徘徊,其实,多数领导人在选举之前早已失去了选民的信任。
    对希腊的第二轮救援计划审批通过的关键,是民间部门和银行的参与,IMF(国际货币基金组织)负责希腊债务救援计划的官员保罗汤姆森承认:“基于国际组织对希腊信用评级的潜在影响,欧元区当务之急是寻求确保希腊银行的流动性机制”。IMF预计,尽管希腊批准了紧缩计划,其经济将收缩3.8%,也就是说,2012年,预计希腊的公共债务占国民生产总值的160%~170%。
    由于欧盟成员国各自为政,决策上犹豫不决,导致欧盟峰会推迟,德国总理默克尔目前同意在7月21日举行特别首脑会议,但前提是,在会议前欧盟各国就希腊预计1100亿欧元的救援计划达成共识。欧盟协议落实的最大困难在于德国、奥地利、荷兰和芬兰要求私人银行贡献约300亿欧元的第二轮救援资金,如果做不到这一点,就等于默认违约。欧洲央行的忠告是:只要有一个欧元区国家违约,其后果可能比雷曼兄弟公司破产更糟糕。
    人们在撰写20世纪初经济史时,评判了欧洲和美国的政治领袖在1929年经济大萧条时,应对金融危机的管理角色的失败。而目前欧盟遇到的问题也表明,只有一致性的决策,才可以防止系统性危机或结构性的错误。
    英国前财政大臣布朗针对欧元区危机,引用了上世纪30年代温斯顿·丘吉尔批评当年欧洲诸政的名言,形容当前欧盟领导者的状态:“他们仅仅为一个决定而犹豫不决,有了决心却拖泥带水,信心犹疑不定,见解随波逐流,掌权者虚弱无力。”

Monday, August 8, 2011

Spain aims to welcome 1 million Chinese tourists in 2020

http://www.iloveshophere.com/spain-aims-to-welcome-1-million-chinese-tourists-in-2020.html


 Visitors appear at La Concha bay from Igeldo mount, in the Northern Spanish city of San Sebastian in June 2011. (AFP Photo)

Spain, Europe’s second-most visited country following France, aims to welcome a single million Chinese visitors in 2020, the government stated Tuesday. The country received 89,523 Chinese visitors in 2009, the last year for which figures are offered, and Tourism Minister Miguel Sebastian mentioned this figure need to rise to 300,000 in 2012.

To enhance the number of guests from China, Spain plans to ease visa requirements for Chinese nationals, encourage far more immediate flights in between the two countries and open more tourist offices in the Asian giant, he additional. The government also plans to publish guides about Spain in mandarin and encourage restaurants and hotels to supply foods and opening hours that are more suited to Chinese tastes.

“This enhance in the flow of visitors will increase understanding about Spain in China and understanding of China in Spain,” Sebastian said at a China-Spain company forum in Barcelona. Spain has just two tourist offices in China, in Beijing and Guangzhou and Air China, China’s only national flag carrier, is at the moment the sole airline to supply immediate flights among the two nations. The minister will present the government’s plan to boost tourist arrivals from China, the world’s most populous nation, in Beijing on July 27.

“We want to attract Chinese tourists, because Spain is a wonderful nation that has considerably to supply and where every person can really feel at property,” Foreign Minister Trinidad Jimenez told the gathering. Whilst most of China’s 1.3 billion folks reside on just a number of dollars a day, the nation is making a burgeoning middle class that can dwarf the populations of several other nations, and who are eager to travel abroad. 

The UN Globe Tourism Organisation estimated that the range of Chinese visitors going to foreign destinations will amount 100 million by 2020, up from from 31 million in 2005 when it was the seventh greatest spender on foreign travel. Most overseas trips by Chinese are to other Asian destinations, but they are increasingly heading to Europe and the United States as restrictions on travel to these regions ease.  Spain slipped from third to fourth location amongst the world’s most visited countries in 2010, behind France, the United States and China, according to figures from the UN World Tourism Organisation.

It received 52.six million foreign guests last year, up slightly from 52.five million in 2009.
(Agencies)